The Opportunity

In 2022, candidates The States Project supported beat rightwing election-denying candidates to successfully hold ground in the Arizona Senate and House.

By keeping both chambers within a one-seat margin of governing control, we’ve given our democracy a fighting chance. If there are extremist rightwing attempts to overturn rightful, valid presidential election results in 2024, pro-democracy state lawmakers are in a strong position to work across the aisle to protect the will of their voters.

Although Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs has vowed to veto the most harmful policies that are sent to her desk, ending rightwing control in both chambers could create the opportunity to advance policies that would really improve lives in the state. Continued investment and data-driven campaign tactics could even put this state on a path to becoming the next trifecta.

The Stakes

Arizona’s rightwing majority has enacted some of the most extreme policies in the nation, including:

• A near-total abortion ban that criminalizes doctors for providing life-saving care.
• Anti-voter policies that limit early voting, ban drop boxes, and even make it legal to throw out rightfully cast votes.
• Putting quality public education out of reach for Arizona’s working families by defunding Arizona’s public schools — leaving one in three classrooms without a full-time teacher.
• Forcing cities to host gun shows, allowing guns in schools, and preventing colleges from banning concealed firearms on campus even as school shootings continue to rise.

The Landscape

Though the rightwing holds a one-seat majority in both chambers, flipping two seats in each chamber would build a new trifecta in the state with the governing power to pass policies that improve the lives of all Arizonans.

Flipping both chambers in Arizona is possible in 2024. In the Senate 1,500 voters changing their minds would have shifted the balance of power in 2022. And in the House, we see a clear path to governing power, as less than 1,000 voters shifting would have ended rightwing control. Investing in the districts where we see the opportunities to shift power now gives us the strongest shot at achieving our goals in the state.

• Giving Circles helped fuel The States Projects’ full toolkit of evidence-based tactics in the most competitive Arizona districts. Our funds supported critical staff hires alongside layered opportunities for voter contact across local media, TV ads with fully-tested messages, digital advertising, and direct mail.
• In the Senate, The States Project’s support helped candidates win three of four critical toss-up seats. In the House, new state legislative candidates held two key seats – one by just 322 voters.
• Identifying potential tipping point races is a critical part of our Core Electoral Program, because those are the races where power is held or built. Ending rightwing control of the Arizona House was out of reach by just 941 voters in a single district. Similarly, just 1,480 voters changing their votes in one district could have shifted control of the State Senate.
• Late in the 2022 cycle, a Democratic candidate running uncontested for a State Senate seat dropped out of his race. Because of state election laws, his name was still on the ballot, but votes cast for him would not be counted. This kicked off several write-in campaigns for the seat. TSP’s Giving Circles and Give Smart communities immediately mobilized around Dr. Eva Diaz, an educator, and first-time candidate. TSP’s Give Smart Program — where members of The States Project community give directly to candidates — was the top funder for Dr. Diaz in a seat that the rightwing could have easily stolen without our support.

• We gained one new seat in the State Senate, leaving the chamber within one seat of a power shift.
• We won two new seats in the House, but incumbent losses meant that chamber margins remained unchanged — a four-seat gain — from 2018.
• Democrats came the closest they’ve been to winning the Arizona Legislature since 1966.

In our first election in Arizona, we helped gain four seats in the State House, sending four new state representatives to Phoenix.