The States Project’s historic $7 million investment in Virginia’s legislative elections helped power a pro-democracy trifecta in the Commonwealth.
Last night, The States Project’s historic $7 million investment in Virginia’s legislative elections — the largest investment of any national group — helped power a pro-democracy trifecta in the Commonwealth.
These results represent a resounding victory for the people of Virginia and all Americans who value our democracy and our personal freedom. They also sent a clear warning to rightwing extremist lawmakers across the country ahead of next year’s midterms: anti-democracy actions are a political loser — and voters will hold you accountable at the ballot box.
What Happened in Virginia
With Democrats hanging onto a narrow, two-seat majority, Virginia’s entire House of Delegates was up for grabs in this election. But powered by TSP’s historic investment, pro-democracy candidates have now won 64 seats, expanding the Democratic majority to a 14-seat margin in the chamber — the party’s biggest advantage in the chamber in nearly four decades.
Combined with the existing pro-democracy majority in the Senate and Abigail Spanberger’s victory in the gubernatorial race, the results in the House give Virginians a pro-democracy trifecta for the first time since 2021.
Here are a few key, majority-expanding races that made this possible:
- HD-22: The first called flip of the night set the tone for things to come; a top door-knocking candidate, Elizabeth Guzman, returned to office with a 9-point victory in this Prince William County swing district.
- HD-64: Stacey Carroll — a mother of three and military veteran — won by a nearly 6-point margin in this Stafford district that Trump carried by 2 points in 2024.
- HD-41: After falling just 183 votes short in one of Virginia’s closest races in 2023, Lily Franklin prevailed by 2 points in this Blacksburg-based district that Trump won by 5 points in 2024.
TSP’s Investment Drove Wins in Virginia
This is far from the first time that TSP has powered a pro-democracy trifecta. Since our founding in 2018, we’ve learned what it takes to win the most competitive races — and we’ve utilized that playbook to great effect in elections across the country, helping to build trifectas in states like Michigan, Minnesota, and Maine.
Building on those successes, we invested $7 million to bring TSP’s full electoral program to Virginia in 2025, including:
- Door Knocking Challenge: This year, we brought back the Candidate Door Knocking Challenge. This program rewards participating candidates with campaign contributions based on the number of doors they knock in their districts. We also rewarded candidates who sent personalized “clinch cards” as follow-ups to conversations they had in their neighborhoods, and introduced new accountability measures to ensure their notes were tailored.
- Candidates who participated in these challenges personally knocked on more than 36,600 total doors, and over 2,800 doors on average.
- These door-to-door conversations were key to candidate success and show how personal engagement can influence independent and even conservative voters to consider voting for pro-democracy candidates, especially when local and kitchen table issues like data centers and fentanyl trafficking were discussed.
- Research-Backed Messaging: This year, TSP supported focus groups to understand how Virginians are thinking about key issues. This research, combined with quantitative polling, ensured that candidates deployed messages that mirror how Virginians in their neighborhoods are thinking about the issues they care about most. Our research indicated voters wanted candidates to address kitchen table issues like lowering costs for groceries and childcare. We made it possible for 109 ads to be tested — ensuring the majority of ads running in paid media programs would net the highest possible number of votes.
- Local Press Project: State legislative campaigns rarely have the resources available to employ dedicated press staffers who can do the day-to-day work required to drive local news coverage. In an effort to short-circuit this dynamic, TSP powered dedicated press support for campaigns in competitive House races in Virginia, ensuring candidates were able to secure coverage in their communities’ remaining local outlets and leverage those valuable platforms to communicate their message to their voters.
- When we first launched the Local Press Project in 2023, data showed that participating candidates were mentioned in local news stories 40% more than those who did not participate. Participating candidates also received significantly more beneficial news coverage compared to their opponents.
- This year, we initiated the program earlier than ever before, because we know candidates who receive more press coverage are more likely to overperform in their elections.
- Relational Organizing: In a year with no federal top-of-ticket race, driving voter turnout was essential to powering a trifecta. TSP’s investments this cycle fueled a relational voter contact program in key districts to increase turnout by helping campaign volunteers reach voters in their social networks.
What These Results Mean
With Gov.-elect Spanberger in the Governor’s mansion and pro-democracy majorities in both legislative chambers, Virginia is now primed to lead in the fight to safeguard our democracy, protect our personal freedom, and improve the lives of everyday Americans — pushing back on the surge of rightwing extremism emanating from Washington.
These pro-democracy leaders have the opportunity to address the issues that are top of mind for millions of Virginians — such as lowering costs from groceries to housing and childcare to healthcare, and protecting personal freedom for all Virginians.
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About The States Project
The States Project connects the importance of state legislatures to every aspect of our lives and brings together communities to help build a healthy, sustainable, and prosperous future for all. Our electoral work focuses on winning governing majorities in the states by making state legislative campaigns more effective and better funded. We do it because we believe that state legislatures are the strongest force for change in this country.
