In 2024, we were not able to build a new majority in either Arizona chamber, but we kept the balance of power close in a state that saw the biggest swing toward Trump of any swing state. While he won the state by 6 points, 15 of the 18 potential tipping point seats we fueled across both chambers were decided by less than 5 percent. In the Arizona Senate, if 3,407 votes had changed across 2 seats, the chamber would be tied. In the House, just 4,253 votes changing across 3 seats would have tied the chamber.

Despite strong national headwinds, our work helped keep the balance of power close. And we know from experience that close margins can make a meaningful difference in the legislature when it comes to actually improving lives. During the 2024 legislative session, lawmakers in Arizona’s minorities were able to successfully repeal the state’s archaic 1864 abortion ban, which made no exceptions for rape or incest, by creating enough public pressure to convince two rightwing lawmakers in the Senate and three in the House to vote for the repeal.

These state lawmakers have shown that it’s possible to work across the aisle to prevent some of the most extreme policies from harming the people they serve. We’re committed to equipping lawmakers who will fight to defend our democracy, protect personal freedoms, and improve lives with the tools to protect Arizonans from the worst impacts of a MAGA agenda under a second Trump presidency. And in 2026, we will have another chance to flip a chamber in Arizona.

Though ground was lost in both chambers, we were able to keep the balance of power close despite strong national headwinds. TSP invested 13 times more than the next largest national funder of the caucus and candidates in Arizona. Without our intervention, even more seats could have been lost to the rightwing.

Giving Circles helped fuel The States Projects’ full toolkit of evidence-based tactics in the most competitive Arizona districts. Our funds supported critical staff hires alongside layered opportunities for voter contact across local media, TV ads with fully-tested messages, digital advertising, and direct mail.

In the Senate, The States Project’s support helped candidates win three of four critical toss-up seats. In the House, new state legislative candidates held two key seats – one by just 322 voters.

Identifying potential tipping point races is a critical part of our Core Electoral Program, because those are the races where power is held or built. Ending rightwing control of the Arizona House was out of reach by just 941 voters in a single district. Similarly, just 1,480 voters changing their votes in one district could have shifted control of the State Senate.

Late in the 2022 cycle, a Democratic candidate running uncontested for a State Senate seat dropped out of his race. Because of state election laws, his name was still on the ballot, but votes cast for him would not be counted. This kicked off several write-in campaigns for the seat. TSP’s Giving Circles and Give Smart communities immediately mobilized around Dr. Eva Diaz, an educator, and first-time candidate. TSP’s Give Smart Program — where members of The States Project community give directly to candidates — was the top funder for Dr. Diaz in a seat that the rightwing could have easily stolen without our support.

• We gained one new seat in the State Senate, leaving the chamber within one seat of a power shift.
• We won two new seats in the House, but incumbent losses meant that chamber margins remained unchanged — a four-seat gain — from 2018.
• Democrats came the closest they’ve been to winning the Arizona Legislature since 1966.

In our first election in Arizona, we helped gain four seats in the State House, sending four new state representatives to Phoenix.