Minnesota

STATE HOUSE
STATE SENATE

Current state:

2022

“The change we want to see — and the values we must defend — will rely on the work we do together. Our movement is only as strong as our work.”
Minnesota Democratic Leader Melisa López Franzen.

The Opportunity

Minnesota has a Democratic governor, a State House majority committed to improving lives that lost five seats in 2020, and a rightwing Senate where we only need three seats for a new majority. In what would be The States Project’s first election in Minnesota, there’s an opportunity to flip a chamber, but we also need to avoid losing the state altogether by keeping control of the  House in the 2022 midterms.

The Stakes

If Roe v. Wade is overturned in the Supreme Court this year, a number of states around Minnesota could outlaw abortion immediately. This means that women from bordering states like Iowa, North Dakota, and South Dakota would need to travel to Minnesota to have an abortion.

It also means that overturning abortion in the state could become a priority for Minnesota’s rightwing, which championed a range of other radical policies in 2021 like:

  • Ending same-day voter registration in Minnesota which would have prevented more than 259,000 Minnesotans from voting in the 2020 election.
  • Criminalizing peaceful protests and preventing activists who are arrested at protests from accessing student loans and other public programs.
  • Restricting reproductive rights to ban doctors in the state from performing an abortion.

The chances of these bills becoming law are slim right now, but so are the margins in both chambers in Minnesota.

The Landscape

In 2020,

  • If the rightwing in Minnesota had flipped just 184 votes, they could have broken Democratic control of the Minnesota House of Representatives in 2020.
  • Similarly, if the Senate minority had flipped just 1,526 votes in 2020 State Senate races, they would have won the chamber.

Given the margins for both chambers in the 2020 election, it’s possible that there could be a radical rightwing majority in both Minnesota state chambers, and a strong defense will be needed to prevent this outcome. State legislative maps will likely get drawn by the State Supreme Court, and with potentially fairer maps, it could be possible to protect the House majority, flip the Senate majority, and create a trifecta focused on improving lives in Minnesota.

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