THE OPPORTUNITY

In 2023, we helped defend the Virginia State Senate majority and build a new majority in the House of Delegates. This year, with no elections in the Senate and a statewide race for governor, we see a chance to build the nation’s newest pro-democracy trifecta by defending the one-seat House majority.

While a lot of attention will be focused on the governor’s race, defending the House majority is just as critical. If we can successfully defend the House — and if Virginians elect a pro-democracy governor — state lawmakers will have the governing power they need to not only fight a federal MAGA agenda but also to meaningfully improve lives for the people they serve.

THE STAKES

Despite a rightwing governor, the Virginia legislative majorities we helped build in 2023 leveraged their governing power to pass policies focused on making daily life safer and more affordable for all Virginians, including:

• Free childcare for low-income families and a program to help schools create farm-to-table programs that combat hunger and support local farmers;
• Lowering prescription drug costs so that families can afford life-saving medications;
• Ensuring clean drinking water with expanded monitoring of cancer-causing forever chemicals;
• Protecting menstrual data from search warrants, a critical privacy protection in the post-Roe era.

This November, if we fail to defend the House majority and the rightwing wins the gubernatorial seat, we could see these protections for Virginians rolled back in favor of abortion bans, defunding public schools, and leaving Virginians at the mercy of big polluters as a single seat majority in the Senate would be the only buffer against the rightwing.

THE LANDSCAPE

In 2023, control of the House was decided by just 975 votes. In this first major election of Trump’s second presidency, the rightwing will be motivated to win more governing power in the states to impose their MAGA agenda. With stakes this high and margins this close, we know we can’t afford to take a single seat for granted in 2025.

We successfully defended the Senate majority and flipped two seats to build a new majority in the House of Delegates! This performance in Virginia state legislative races was historic — it was the first time both chambers were lost under a sitting Virginia governor in more than 50 years. Every potential tipping point seat identified and funded by The States Project was crucial in powering new one-seat majorities in both chambers.

While the rightwing regained control of the House of Delegates, our work in the districts with the closest margins meant that if 400 votes across three districts had gone the other way, we would have held the House majority.

• Three of the candidates we supported won their seats.
• Five candidates we supported lost by margins of 5 percent or less.

The States Project helped flip the House of Delegates, building a Democratic trifecta in the state for the first time since 1993! Our electoral effort helped to create a new majority of Virginia lawmakers who passed policy after policy to improve lives.

• 11 candidates we supported won their seats, including three challengers who flipped seats to shift the balance of power in the state.
• We supported eight incumbents we had supported in 2017 who were running for re-election. Half of these races were decided within 10 percent, and despite a tougher electorate, those incumbents performed as well as they had in 2017.

In The States Projects’ earliest work in state legislative races, we helped flip enough seats in the House of Delegates to come within one seat of ending rightwing control in the chamber.