The Opportunity

While the recent Moore v Harper ruling upholds the checks and balances crucial to our democracy, there is still a risk of a rightwing state legislature overruling their own voters and assigning the state’s presidential electors to a candidate of their own choosing.

Virginia has a rightwing governor and a rightwing-leaning Court. Losing both state legislative chambers in November would be a disaster — with all the levers of government politically aligned, there would be no checks or balances in the state to protect the voices of voters in elections. How Virginia’s 13 electoral votes are assigned could come down to one pro-democracy majority in one chamber.

A rightwing trifecta in Virginia would be a threat to our democracy.

The Stakes

• Governor Youngkin and the rightwing-controlled House of Delegates have focused on chipping away at voting rights in the state. In 2023 alone they introduced policies to prohibit ballot drop boxes, reduce early voting, end same-day registration, restrict voting rights of people with prior felony convictions, and cancel the annual vote-by-mail option. The Senate majority prevented these rollbacks on voting rights in the state, but it’s clear that voters’ ability to cast a ballot would be in the crosshairs of a rightwing trifecta.
• The rightwing Virginia House majority, along with Republican Governor Youngkin, has threatened the future of reproductive rights in the state. As one of the few Southern states with abortion protections — put into place before the House fell into the hands of the radical right — new bans would impact patients from nearby states and Virginians. Following the fall of Roe, Youngkin has asked the legislature to send him a bill limiting access to abortions in the state that he can sign into law.
• Youngkin has also attempted to remove protections for Virginia’s clean air and water, prioritizing narrow special interests over the health and safety of Virginians. Over the past year, the legislature has blocked his attempts to appoint a former coal lobbyist from becoming Virginia’s Secretary of Natural and Historic Resources. State lawmakers have also been the buffer between him letting big polluters off the hook for their carbon emissions.

The Landscape

In the State Senate, the rightwing is two seats away from governing control of the chamber. In the State House, where just 400 votes shifting across three seats would have maintained the majority in 2021, three seats must flip for governing control.

In a year when every seat in the House and the Senate are up for election, the newest maps show that the balance of power could swing either way in both chambers.

Winning a majority in both chambers would set the stage for a new trifecta in 2025; but it’s equally possible that there could be a rightwing trifecta in November. Protecting our democracy will come down to winning power in at least one Virginia chamber this November.

• We came within 400 votes across three districts of winning the House majority.
• Three of the candidates we supported won their seats. 
• Five candidates we supported lost by margins of 5 percent or less.

Special Election

In early 2021, our Giving Circles community powered a victory in a special election in HD-2. With the election held just weeks after a contentious 2020 election season, we saw how tight this seat could be due to low turnout. The candidate we supported won their seat by 263 votes, just 3 percent of the vote. 

In the general election in November, that same candidate was able to safely hold their seat by a margin of more than 3,800 votes — proving the value of providing support when it matters most.

In 2019, The States Project’s electoral effort helped to flip the Virginia House creating a new majority of Virginia lawmakers who passed policy after policy to improve lives.

• 11 candidates we supported won their seats, including three challengers who flipped seats to shift the balance of power in the state.
• Four of the five top door knockers in Virginia participated in The States Project Door Knocking Challenge. In total, all of our participants knocked on over 30,000 doors. On average, candidates in the challenge knocked on 2,000 more doors than candidates who weren’t!
• We supported the eight incumbents we had supported in 2017 who were running for re-election. Half of these races ended up being close (within 10 percent), and with our support, those incumbents performed as well as they had in 2017 despite a tougher electorate.