After years of investment, our odds of flipping both Arizona chambers are higher than they’ve ever been in since TSP first began working in the state in 2018. TSP’s modeling shows that the probability of winning new majorities in both the Arizona House and Senate are near 50%.
Winning both chambers will give state lawmakers the governing power they need to deliver for constituents. And state lawmakers in the minority are ready to lead.
Throughout 2026, the House and Senate minorities have remained laser focused on addressing the affordability crisis. Their agenda includes policies to lower the cost of utilities and prescription drugs, stop corporate price gouging, and expand career and technical training. Lawmakers in the minority introduced these policies, but rightwing lawmakers who hold majorities in both chambers blocked them.
Even without majorities, state lawmakers successfully fought for a budget that included tax cuts for middle-class Arizonans and a three-year freeze on tax breaks for data centers. Meanwhile, the rightwing majorities introduced a budget that would kick up to 200,000 Arizonans off their healthcare plan, give $600 billion in tax breaks to billionaires, and cut firefighters and State Troopers pay by $600 per year.
This November is one of our best shots in recent memory to build governing power for state lawmakers who are ready to deliver for Arizonans—and we must take full advantage of this opportunity.
We need to flip four seats in the House and three in the Senate to build new majorities in Arizona. And we know these goals are within reach this November because we’ve been on the ground, successfully keeping the balance of power close, for years.
In 2024, Arizona saw the biggest swing toward Trump of any battleground state. While he won Arizona by 6 points, 15 of the 18 potential tipping point seats we fueled across both chambers were decided by less than 5 percent.
In the Senate, if 3,407 votes had changed across 2 seats, the chamber would be tied. In the House, just 4,253 votes changing across 3 seats would have tied the chamber. Our work helped keep a new trifecta in the state within striking distance.
Now, TSP’s data shows the odds of winning majorities in both chambers are a true coinflip. This November is one of our best shots in recent memory to build governing power for lawmakers who are ready to deliver for Arizonans—and it could come down to a handful of votes in key districts where The States Project is working to close funding gaps.
Though ground was lost in both chambers, we were able to keep the balance of power close despite strong national headwinds. TSP invested 13 times more than the next largest national funder of the caucus and candidates in Arizona. Without our intervention, even more seats could have been lost to the rightwing.
By holding ground in both chambers, we helped keep the balance of power within one seat — the narrowest majorities the rightwing has held in decades in the state legislature. These close margins became critical in the 2024 legislative session, when lawmakers in Arizona’s minorities were able to successfully repeal the state’s archaic 1864 abortion ban, which made no exceptions for rape or incest, by creating enough public pressure to convince two rightwing lawmakers in the Senate and three in the House to vote for the repeal.
We helped gain one new seat in the State Senate, putting the chamber within one seat of a power shift. We also helped flip two new seats in the House, but incumbent losses meant that chamber margins remained unchanged — a four-seat gain — from 2018. This was the closest lawmakers have come to ending the rightwing’s majorities in the legislature since 1966.
In our first election in Arizona, we helped gain four seats in the State House, sending four new state representatives to Phoenix.
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State lawmakers have the power to enact policies that can protect millions of Americans, and the overall direction of the country, from the worst impacts of a second Trump presidency.
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