The probability of winning governing control of six key state legislative chambers sits at almost exactly 50 percent, according to internal predictive modeling by The States Project.
Control of these chambers will come down to razor-thin margins — the right has been flooding these races with cash. But when margins are this thin, every dollar we invest before Election Day can be the one that tips the scales.
WISCONSIN ASSEMBLY
Wisconsin is one of our best shots at building a new trifecta this November — and the rightwing knows it.
In an unprecedented move, MAGA billionaires invested more in winning power in the legislature than they did in the gubernatorial race prior to the primary. And after campaign finance reports showed Assembly Republicans with a significant cash-on-hand advantage, a MAGA megadonor injected an additional $4 million into Assembly races in early August. Flipping two seats in the Senate and five in the Assembly builds the new majorities necessary for a new trifecta. Our modeling shows that the Senate is one of the most flippable chambers in the nation. But in the Assembly, our odds are 50/50. The results in these races will have an impact far beyond Wisconsin’s borders, because with the power of a trifecta, state lawmakers could draw new district maps that yield at least two Congressional seats before the 2028 election.
MICHIGAN HOUSE
Ultra-wealthy MAGA donors are also injecting millions into maintaining rightwing control of the Michigan House — another chamber that could allow the rightwing to block a new Democratic trifecta. In fact, the Michigan Freedom Network, a rightwing PAC funded by the DeVos family, is already running attack ads on Democratic candidates months before the general election, with spending concentrated specifically on House races.
Overall, Michigan House Republicans had about a 2:1 cash-on-hand advantage over House Democrats, as of campaign finance disclosure reports in July. Because of Trump’s actions since the start of his second term, it is estimated that 200,000 Michiganders may lose their healthcare, three rural hospitals may be forced to close, and some of the 1.4 million Michiganders who rely on food assistance could be dropped from the program — including 41,000 military veterans. While the Senate majority that TSP helped build in 2022 has introduced policies to combat these harmful impacts, the rightwing House majority stalled these efforts. Flipping four House seats to retake the majority is a tossup that could unlock trifecta-power for lawmakers committed to improving lives.
ARIZONA HOUSE AND SENATE
After years of investment, TSP’s modeling shows that our odds of winning new majorities in both the Arizona House and Senate are true coinflips. Flipping four House seats and three Senate seats is how we power a new trifecta — and give lawmakers the governing power they need to deliver for constituents.
And lawmakers in the minority are ready to lead. Throughout the 2026 legislative session, the House and Senate minorities have remained laser focused on solving the affordability crisis that is hurting millions of families, releasing a shared policy agenda called An Arizona We Can Afford. The agenda includes policies to lower the cost of utilities and prescription drugs, stop corporate price gouging, and expand career and technical training so every student can graduate ready for apprenticeships and high-skill jobs. Lawmakers in the minority introduced these policies, but rightwing lawmakers who have governing power blocked them. This November is one of our best shots in recent memory to build governing power for lawmakers who are ready to deliver for Arizonans — and it could come down to a handful of votes in key districts, which is why The States Project is working to close funding gaps.
NEW HAMPSHIRE HOUSE
This chamber is our best shot at preventing a rightwing trifecta in a state where rightwing lawmakers have leveraged their governing power to attack patients’ ability to make healthcare decisions with their doctor, cut taxes for the ultrawealthy, and gut funding for affordable housing and public schools.
While recent filings show House Democrats with a 2:1 cash on hand advantage over House Republicans, those numbers do not account for contributions from two MAGA-aligned super PACs, Turning Point and Americans for Prosperity, who are running what is expected to be millions of dollars of programming for rightwing candidates in the state. We need to flip 24 seats in this 400-seat chamber to put a check on the rightwing’s power. With odds this close, every dollar invested could be the one that outmatches MAGA's millions.
OHIO HOUSE
On Election Day, Ohio voters will choose a new governor — either Trump-endorsed Vivek Ramaswami, Elon Musk’s co-leader of the failed DOGE effort, or Dr. Amy Acton, who worked across partisan lines to lead the state’s Department of Health under a Republican governor during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The race between Ramaswami and Acton is expected to be close. But even if Acton wins, her veto is only effective if we also break the supermajority in at least one chamber. Without that, rightwing lawmakers can harness their supermajority power to override her, and the most extreme policies become law anyway. While TSP’s internal modeling shows that there is no viable path to breaking the rightwing supermajority in the Senate this year — flipping the six seats needed to achieve our goal in the House is a tossup. As of June, Ohio House Republicans reported four times more cash on hand than what Democrats have to compete with. With quality candidates running in every competitive district and a strong messaging strategy focused on affordability, this resource gap is the single biggest threat to our goal of breaking the rightwing supermajority this year.FUEL OUR WORK IN THE STATES
These are the best odds we’ve had to win governing power in these chambers in years.
And the rightwing knows it.
They recognize the importance of power in states, and are investing accordingly. That means we have a funding gap that looks scary in many of these states. We can’t take that lightly, but we should remember that campaign dollars hit a point of diminishing returns.
TSP’s electoral program optimizes for that reality. That means we don’t need to match them dollar-for-dollar. But we do need to fully fund our strategy if we want to win.
There are fewer than 50 days until Election Day.
